Yellowstone Super Volcano, when will it erupt?

[Liv]

One things for sure, If Europe thought it was rough when Iceland's volcano purged on air travel, Yellowstone would really piss off the frequent flyers.

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oh yeah wow this is one good reason to worry about the eruption, it could put one big hole in the U.S. Just imagine what that would be like losing everything where you grew up and everybody you know. But i dont think it will happen today so just get back to your life and live it up while you still can.

[Unknown]

I think it could happen in 2012.You add a super volcano to the mix of mega tsunamis,mega earthquakes,mega tornadoes,major floods and meteors falling.Oh, let's not forget Nibiru to finnish us off.

[Guest]

This has been bothering me for a while, but I have no science degree so I can only speculate. I recently have been checking the online news about yellowstone, earthquakes, hurricanes & so on and so fourth. I have noticed some thing that other people haven't noticed or haven't talked about yet.

For one, I read an article from the last 6 months or so saying that yellowstone was have more miniquakes then usual, the number 2,500 pops into my head.

Then I read an article saying that an area of the park had risen to some degree.

Then I read that the animals were acting funky, 2 attacks in last month or so.

Then an article states that one particular tree type was dying throughout the part, something white bark, and that most areas look grey from air.

Then the president & vp visit in the same week that this happens...
Then I read on a thread pointed out by someone who chcked yellostones seimic website, that there was a complete stop in miniquakes for several days.

It's amazing what doesn't make the news. Today's solar burst, guatemalas sinkhole, all this yellowstone stuff.

[Guest]

I'll be watching the BBQ from Sydney, aus.
I don't think we will be in trouble, if so, we're an island...hopefully we'll just float awaaaaaay

[Liv]

I'll be watching the BBQ from Sydney, aus.
I don't think we will be in trouble, if so, we're an island...hopefully we'll just float awaaaaaay

Can I crash at your place?

[geust]

yellowstone will not erupt in the next 10,000 years and when it does it will be a ice age. the whole world will be covered in 4ft of ash as it will be over 100 times worse than the last eruption that was within the last 200 years.

[A Person]

yellowstone will not erupt in the next 10,000 years

And you know this - how?

when it does it will be a ice age

Possibly

the whole world will be covered in 4ft of ash

That would require 146,847 cubic miles of ash. The caldera was formed 640,000 years ago in a cataclysmic eruption that released around 240 cubic miles of ash. Enough to cover the whole world in 0.5 thousandth of an inch of ash

as it will be over 100 times worse than the last eruption that was within the last 200 years.

Yellowstone hasn't erupted in the last 200 years. The last (small) eruption was 70,000 years ago.

[Guest]

Plus there is a lot of things we can do to prepare for this super eruption like by extra food maybe some gas masks make an underground shelter I mean these are all good ideas that we could be doing instead of waiting to die. I bet they can predict that it's going to erupt soon and there is enough evidence.

We should continue to monitor it - indeed improve our monitoring (are you listening Bobby Numbnuts Jindal?) but it it does erupt, then an underground shelter or a gas mask isn't going to help. Having an evacuation plan with a package of food, water and other necessities ready to go so that you can get as far away as possible as quickly as you can is a much better idea.

the whole plant is gonna get covered in ash eventually where do u want us to go the moon?

[Liv]

the whole plant is gonna get covered in ash eventually where do u want us to go the moon?

Do you work for Simple Kneads Bakery?

[A Person]

the whole plant is gonna get covered in ash eventually where do u want us to go the moon?

The whole planet will not 'get covered in ash' - large parts of the central and eastern USA will. As for where to go - somewhere west of Yellowstone is a good start, after that I suggest reading "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute

[homosapien]

I am one of the monitors of the NEO Project for NASA, we also get daily reports from the Yellowstone Geologist's and I can assure you all, this generation is perfectly safe... so don't go into wide spread panic just yet.

In the event Yellowstone does erupt, good luck with your plan batman... hope you have the batmobile handy!

-Beliel

With all your accuracy, you still say "yet" and "in the event". You seem so sure. Eager to assuage. But, you still can't help but ridicule a human. What concerns you most: continuing your research to help your fellow man, or make a load of cash as a "monitor"? Climb down off your rim and into the caldera with the rest of us mortals. We can see you too.

[volcano my passion]

Scientist have been measuring the recent rising of the north lake which has moved as much as meter in certain areas while moving into the near by surrounding woods. This along with multiple earthquakes indicate the impending events that are likely to take place soon.

When will it happen?

I saw a show about this on some channel a month or so back. They said that recent measurements of the crust beneath Yellowstone indicate that the magma chamber down there is maybe 10% liquid. Until it gets about 70%, there's no danger of an eruption.

So it's safe to ignore it and go back to worrying about global warming, nuclear winter and killer asteroids.

look am 14 we have been learning about yellowstone in geography and there is going to be a 80% of it errupting in our lifetime or even tomour

[A Person]

One important lesson to learn is that is you are going to appeal to authority (my teacher told me...) then you need to ask your authority "How do you know?"

If your geography teacher has told you there is an 80% probability Yellowstone will have a catastrophic eruption in the next 75 years then I would like to know on what basis she makes that claim. Volcano prediction just isn't that precise and even the US Geological Survey cannot make that prediction.

QUESTION: What is the chance of another catastrophic volcanic eruption at Yellowstone?
ANSWER: Although it is possible, scientists are not convinced that there will ever be another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone. Given Yellowstone's past history, the yearly probability of another caldera—forming eruption could be calculated as 1 in 730,000 or 0.00014%. However, this number is based simply on averaging the two intervals between the three major past eruptions at Yellowstone — this is hardly enough to make a critical judgement. This probability is roughly similar to that of a large (1 kilometer) asteroid hitting the Earth. Moreover, catastrophic geologic events are neither regular nor predictable.
US Geological Survey

QUESTION: How far in advance could scientists predict an eruption of the Yellowstone volcano?
ANSWER: The science of forecasting a volcanic eruption has significantly advanced over the past 25 years. Most scientists think that the buildup preceding a catastrophic eruption would be detectable for weeks and perhaps months to years. Precursors to volcanic eruptions include strong earthquake swarms and rapid ground deformation and typically take place days to weeks before an actual eruption. Scientists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) closely monitor the Yellowstone region for such precursors. They expect that the buildup to larger eruptions would include intense precursory activity (far exceeding background levels) at multiple spots within the Yellowstone volcano. As at many caldera systems around the world, small earthquakes, ground uplift and subsidence, and gas releases at Yellowstone are commonplace events and do not reflect impending eruptions.

If she was talking about a minor eruption e.g. lava flow, that is far more likely - although the last one was 75,000 years ago so there's no reason to suppose one will happen any time soon. We simply cannot predict whether an eruption will or will not happen with any confidence until just before it happens.

It's also a good idea to run a spell check before you submit any work.

[Liv]

Hey A.P. I pulled the IP on that post and it's Sky Broadband (London).... is that what they're scaring 14 year olds over in G.B. with? I'm guessing that prevents emigration? "Don't go to America, it's going to blow up!"



On second thought, "Volcano My Passion", I'm coming to crash at your place if it blows.

[A Person]

You'd be better off looking for a Japanese, Chinese or Australian pad to crash in. London would be ugly. Shut down from the ash and unable to feed itself. They couldn't even deal with a skiff of snow.

[Liv]

They couldn't even deal with a skiff of snow.

Bitter are we?

Since I assume we will only learn of the eruption, after it erupts- and since air travel will likely be grounded or too expensive for the average person... I guess I'm heading towards South America in the Taurus.

[Guest]

If this super volcano does erupt, ash will cover the whole of America, people will die from ash overload on their rooftops and be buried beneath their houses. Im more worried about the after effects tbh as i live in uk..
This is the eruption history they know of..
2.1 million years ago,

1.3 million years ago

... and 640 thousand years ago, so this cycle suggests another one is brewing.. sad times. Also you can hardly compare this to St.Helens.. a show about it said the The Pyroclastic surges from a super eruption at Yellowstone could extend up to 100 kilometres from the volcano and travel at the speed of sound, due to the sheer force..
ALSO
stratosphere in the atmosphere above the highest clouds that you can see and what happens is when an eruption occurs and that sulphuric acid gets into the stratosphere there aren't clouds or water there to actually bring it out, the problem
is that it can stay there for years and years.
The aerosols create a veil that deflects sunlight away from the earth causing temperatures to drop. How dramatic the drop depends on how much is released, and you know a hell of a lot will be realeased, as we know its a damn super volcano... The same thing happened in greenland 110 thousand years ago..

"While Yellowstone's geological history suggests that there will be another super eruption at some stage in the future scientists agree that the chances of it happening in our lifetime are extremely remote" Do we need to worry about this, so much..?

My personal opinion is I have great faith in humanity, I think f something like this did occur the nations of the planet would pull together because resources would be so limited that they would have to be shared so I would see this as an opportunity for humanity to show itself in it's true light.

Even if the countries got together their only gonna care about the important people! They're not gonna give too sh*ts about "the poor lot" in their eyes are they so there's no point in that really! :/

[meeeeee]

i say we cover yellow stone park completly in plastic wrap and make it like super thick.if that dont work. we all die.woohoo.i cnt wait.

[Liv]

i say we cover yellow stone park completly in plastic wrap and make it like super thick.if that dont work. we all die.woohoo.i cnt wait.

You know that's something I've always wondered.... (not cling-wrap)... could you plug a smaller volcano, and drill a separate exit path lower down in the tube to create lava flows, perhaps new land masses where you wanted them?

[A Person]

That's a bit like saying BP could have stopped the oil leak with a cork and Scotch tape.

There's nothing we could do to plug a volcano and while it might be possible to stimulate an eruption, doing it a controlled way is beyond current technology and knowledge

I could imagine blasting to encourage lava to flow in a particular direction - but you'd have to be very sure you weren't going to make the eruption any worse

[Liv]

But if the volcano is dormant, then you you wouldn't have to work against that pressure. Isn't it a bit like electricity, and that lava flows in the crust's weakest path (path of least resistance). It's not like you've got to physically cap the volcano, but create a alternate path of lesser resistance?

[A Person]

If the volcano is dormant then it's best left alone, why try to trigger an eruption?

Secondly, drilling into a magma chamber is unlikely to be successful. As you got closer to the chamber the heat would make drilling difficult - boiling drilling fluids for one. When you get really close the rock is plastic and would deform so the hole would not stay open and would seal itself.

I could see blasting to remove cover rock and encourage an eruption to occur in a particular area but once an eruption has started trying to control it would make the BP leak look like a dripping faucet.

[A Person]

Interesting article in National Geographic

Yellowstone National Park's supervolcano just took a deep "breath," causing miles of ground to rise dramatically, scientists report.

The simmering volcano has produced major eruptions—each a thousand times more powerful than Mount St. Helens's 1980 eruption—three times in the past 2.1 million years. Yellowstone's caldera, which covers a 25- by 37-mile (40- by 60-kilometer) swath of Wyoming, is an ancient crater formed after the last big blast, some 640,000 years ago.

Since then, about 30 smaller eruptions—including one as recent as 70,000 years ago—have filled the caldera with lava and ash, producing the relatively flat landscape we see today.

But beginning in 2004, scientists saw the ground above the caldera rise upward at rates as high as 2.8 inches (7 centimeters) a year.

The rate slowed between 2007 and 2010 to a centimeter a year or less. Still, since the start of the swelling, ground levels over the volcano have been raised by as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters) in places.

"It's an extraordinary uplift, because it covers such a large area and the rates are so high," said the University of Utah's Bob Smith, a longtime expert in Yellowstone's volcanism.

Should we be worried? Not particularly, it isn't particularly unusual.

Ground deformation can suggest that magma is moving toward the surface before an eruption: The flanks of Mount St. Helens, for example, swelled dramatically in the months before its 1980 explosion.

But there are also many examples, including the Yellowstone supervolcano, where it appears the ground has risen and fallen for thousands of years without an eruption.

According to current theory, Yellowstone's magma reservoir is fed by a plume of hot rock surging upward from Earth's mantle.

When the amount of magma flowing into the chamber increases, the reservoir swells like a lung and the surface above expands upward. Models suggest that during the recent uplift, the reservoir was filling with 0.02 cubic miles (0.1 cubic kilometer) of magma a year.

When the rate of increase slows, the theory goes, the magma likely moves off horizontally to solidify and cool, allowing the surface to settle back down.

Based on geologic evidence, Yellowstone has probably seen a continuous cycle of inflation and deflation over the past 15,000 years, and the cycle will likely continue, Smith said.

Surveys show, for example, that the caldera rose some 7 inches (18 centimeters) between 1976 and 1984 before dropping back about 5.5 inches (14 centimeters) over the next decade.

[Liv]

That's an interesting article, but surely the main reason we don't have to worry is because it's not Dec 21, 2012 yet... right?